Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
